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Document title: Eurofighter's slow death spiral as F-35 corners market - F-16.net - The Ultimate F-16 Reference
Original URL: http://www.f-16.net/f-16_forum_viewtopic-t-10643-sid-461886e90eecf7cd3dc7bfbea7d55c95.html
Printed on: 19 November 2008

Forum: F-35 Lightning II

Eurofighter's slow death spiral as F-35 corners market



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Obamanite
PostPosted: Jun 27, 2008 - 06:24 AM Reply with quote Back to top
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Something about Aesop's fables and the fox saying the grapes were sour anyway seems a somehow appropriate allusion here...

The Financial Times wrote:
Eurofighter drops Norway and Denmark tenders
By Robert Anderson in Stockholm

Published: December 23 2007 18:35 | Last updated: December 23 2007 18:35

The Eurofighter consortium has pulled out of tenders in Norway and Denmark for more than 100 fighter jets, complaining that it is “ill at ease” with changes in the procurement process.

Eurofighter’s “suspension” of its participation is an embarrassment for Norway and Denmark, but it also reflects the fact that it was losing ground in both tenders, which have become a dogfight between Lockheed Martin’s F-35 Joint Strike Fighter (JSF) and Saab’s Gripen.

Norway is due to issue a request for binding information early next month for its next generation of fighters and aims to choose a winner at the end of the year, while Denmark should decide in 2009.

Eurofighter’s failure in its European home market comes as the UK and Italy, both consortium members, are considering cutting their orders. Eurofighter, a consortium of Britain’s BAE Systems, EADS (the Franco-German-Spanish aerospace and defence company) and Finmeccanica of Italy, has so far won contracts only for the Typhoon in Austria and Saudia Arabia outside its members’ home countries.

Eurofighter’s withdrawal is believed to reflect fears that the Norwegian tender has been skewed in Lockheed’s favour because the US company will not have to make the same industrial offset commitments as its European rivals.

These pledges to invest in the purchasing country are a key factor in many arms deals and have often been a trump card for European bidders in their home market.

Lockheed has long been the favourite in the Norwegian and Danish tenders because both countries already fly its F-16 fighter and are part of the company’s JSF development project.

But Norway insists that it has tried to open up the tender process to replace the F-16s by allocating funds for small-scale industrial co-operation ventures with both Saab and the Eurofighter consortium that could be developed into offset projects. “We have been trying to level the playing field,” said Espen Barth Eide, Norway’s deputy defence minister.

Yet Norway has also informed Saab and Eurofighter that Lockheed will not have to provide the same offset commitments, because any purchase from the US company would be a government-to-government deal, making company investment pledges problematic.

Mr Eide insisted that, whichever it chose, Norway would still demand investments, whether through offsets or the JSF development programme. “We will look for real industrial participation in each programme, regardless of its name,” he said.

Source: http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/f4f81670-b183 ... ck_check=1
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geogen
PostPosted: Jun 27, 2008 - 06:03 AM Reply with quote Back to top
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True, this is not breaking news. But I'm not accepting your general premise that EF is going down in flames and F-35 will conquer all attitude. Sorry, but it just seems a bit antagonistic, naive and disingenuous (although the competitive spirit is generally pro-active in the long-run, of course). Cheers -

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Maks
PostPosted: Jun 27, 2008 - 07:57 AM Reply with quote Back to top
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Hi,

it is yet to see how "cheap" the F-35 turns out to be in the end and when all the advertised capabilities will be available (if at all)?

With funding limited the total number of F-35 might go the same way as it did for the Raptor and I would not be surprised if US Services purchase considerable less than originally planned.
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dwightlooi
PostPosted: Jun 27, 2008 - 10:54 AM Reply with quote Back to top
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It kind of makes sense. You either go for superiority with the F-35 or go for the cheap with the Gripen. It is kinda hard to sell the Typhoon or the Rafale for the same money (or more) as the F-35.

Be it A2A, A2G or simply long range recon, the F-35 offers superiority over the Eurocanards in terms of overall combat effectiveness. It carries more, it goes further, it has superior sensors in every respect, it is stealth if you need it to be. Any operational speed differences is academic at best given the penalties that the Eurocanards have to always bear with external stores. With the exception of a small degree of agility advantage, which is becoming increasingly irrelevant given the reliability of today's BVR missiles and high off bore sight WVR rounds, the Eurocanards offer nothing.
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dwightlooi
PostPosted: Jun 27, 2008 - 10:59 AM Reply with quote Back to top
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Maks wrote:
Hi,

it is yet to see how "cheap" the F-35 turns out to be in the end and when all the advertised capabilities will be available (if at all)?

With funding limited the total number of F-35 might go the same way as it did for the Raptor and I would not be surprised if US Services purchase considerable less than originally planned.


If the USAF buys only as many F-35s as Raptors, we are talking about downsizing the USAF to a 300+ fighter air force (ala the French Armee de air) I just don't see that happening. The US economy is, give or take, the size of the EU as a whole and the US takes defense and power projection much more seriously than the welfarist-socialist-liberal European nations. At the minimum, US air power will be at least that of the EU as a whole; probably a tad more. That is at least a 1500 fighter force.
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Maks
PostPosted: Jun 27, 2008 - 02:02 PM Reply with quote Back to top
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I agree - I can not see a reduction in numbers as for the F-22, B-2, for example.
But even 20 - 25% will hurt the unit-priece a lot.

How has the number of F-35s for the US changed over the years? Overview available, anybody?
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iJDAM
PostPosted: Jun 27, 2008 - 05:30 PM Reply with quote Back to top
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dwightlooi wrote:
Maks wrote:
Hi,

it is yet to see how "cheap" the F-35 turns out to be in the end and when all the advertised capabilities will be available (if at all)?

With funding limited the total number of F-35 might go the same way as it did for the Raptor and I would not be surprised if US Services purchase considerable less than originally planned.


If the USAF buys only as many F-35s as Raptors, we are talking about downsizing the USAF to a 300+ fighter air force (ala the French Armee de air) I just don't see that happening. The US economy is, give or take, the size of the EU as a whole and the US takes defense and power projection much more seriously than the welfarist-socialist-liberal European nations. At the minimum, US air power will be at least that of the EU as a whole; probably a tad more. That is at least a 1500 fighter force.


But the F-35 will only replace older versions of F-16s and A-10s. Most of the Block 30 and higher aircraft will remain in service. So when you think about it, its still a good chance for the US to cut the original order of F-35s.
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Obamanite
PostPosted: Jun 27, 2008 - 07:51 PM Reply with quote Back to top
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iJDAM wrote:
dwightlooi wrote:
Maks wrote:
Hi,

it is yet to see how "cheap" the F-35 turns out to be in the end and when all the advertised capabilities will be available (if at all)?

With funding limited the total number of F-35 might go the same way as it did for the Raptor and I would not be surprised if US Services purchase considerable less than originally planned.


If the USAF buys only as many F-35s as Raptors, we are talking about downsizing the USAF to a 300+ fighter air force (ala the French Armee de air) I just don't see that happening. The US economy is, give or take, the size of the EU as a whole and the US takes defense and power projection much more seriously than the welfarist-socialist-liberal European nations. At the minimum, US air power will be at least that of the EU as a whole; probably a tad more. That is at least a 1500 fighter force.


But the F-35 will only replace older versions of F-16s and A-10s. Most of the Block 30 and higher aircraft will remain in service. So when you think about it, its still a good chance for the US to cut the original order of F-35s.


Not so. Block 25 Vipers are already being sent to the Boneyard, with Block 30/32 soon to follow. There are already troubling signs of fatigue in even the Block 40/42. The F-35 will eventually replace ALL U.S. F-16s, including the latest Block 50/52, even if it's not until after 2020. By that time, some of those Vipers will be older than the pilots who will be flying them Shocked
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vertical
PostPosted: Jun 27, 2008 - 08:03 PM Reply with quote Back to top
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Yes, the F-16 is in dire need of replacement. Not just the earlier blocks. The current ops tempo is really making a near future replacement absolutely necessary.

vertical
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geogen
PostPosted: Jun 28, 2008 - 04:21 AM Reply with quote Back to top
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Hallo Maks,

A 20-25% reduction in F-35 orders will impact the unit price of US orders only, most likely. The foreign sales will be fixed. Cheers to AUT (and btw, do you get any tranche 3 EF?)

Dwight... I'd beg to differ. US is arguably a better welfare state than even our friends across the pond. Do you understand what people truly get in need of welfare in the states and in per student cost for education regardless of language spoken and per 'resident' cost in healthcare.. and per taxpayer benefits in social security?

Couple that with the defense expenditures and the defense part is a fraction? Something is screwy in the actual, respective program operations nuts and bolts, imo.

Have a good weekend.

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Corsair1963
PostPosted: Jun 28, 2008 - 11:55 PM Reply with quote Back to top
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vertical wrote:
Yes, the F-16 is in dire need of replacement. Not just the earlier blocks. The current ops tempo is really making a near future replacement absolutely necessary.

vertical



Let's not forget the vast fleets of A-10's, F/A-18's, and AV-8's! Also, with only 183 Raptors coming down the line. Its very likely that some of the F-15 fleet will be replaced by F-35's. Really, the market for the Lightning is going to be great in the coming years! Very Happy
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mcashe
PostPosted: Jun 30, 2008 - 03:26 PM Reply with quote Back to top
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Don't forget the fact the F22 was never meant to be exported. This has a lot to do with the numbers and affordabililty.
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